The US investigation into leaked documents focuses on classified materials that have revealed Israel’s alleged military preparations against Iran. According to US officials, these documents appear to be legitimate and have serious concerns within the national security community.
The materials were reportedly shared via a Telegram channel, which has been linked to pro-Iranian interests and has previously posted content supportive of Tehran’s military agenda.
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The documents were marked “top secret” surfaced online on October 20, 2024, through a Telegram channel. They were quickly disseminated, despite being meant only for the eyes of the Five Eyes alliance.
According to sources, the documents are believed to have originated from the US National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency and the National Security Agency, which provided detailed assessments of Israel’s military preparations.
The leak was first made public on a pro-Iranian Telegram account, Middle East Spectator, which has previously supported Iran and militant groups affiliated with the country.
The documents detail Israel’s planned retaliation against Iran, following a ballistic missile attack from Tehran on October 1, 2024.
Israel’s plans include the repositioning of munitions and conducting air-to-surface missile exercises, all in preparation for a military strike.
The National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency’s involvement underlines the use of satellite imagery to track Israel’s movements and confirm these preparations.
The leaks also suggest Israel’s nuclear capabilities, a secret by the Israeli government. While the documents state that Israel has no intention of deploying nuclear weapons in this strike, the mention of nuclear assets adds a new dimension to an already volatile situation.
The leaked documents also demonstrate that the US and its closest intelligence allies have been independently monitoring Israel’s military preparations.
The documents provide insights based on satellite imagery and other forms of geospatial intelligence, noting that Israel’s movements are being observed.
These assessments appear to be part of an effort by the US and the Five Eyes intelligence network to stay informed about Israeli military actions.
While the reports do not explicitly predict the scale or scope of a possible strike on Iran, they make it clear that Israeli military preparations are ongoing.
The leaked documents are dated 16 October 2024 and first surfaced online just a day later. They capture Israeli military preparations following Iran’s 1 October ballistic missile attack on Israel.
This attack appears to have been a factor prompting Israel’s preparations for a military response. The documents note that Israel has been positioning its assets for a retaliatory strike.
Another takeaway from the leaked documents is the emphasis on Israel’s ability to conduct missile strikes.
The Rocks missile system was developed by Israeli company Rafael. Additionally, the documents reference a system named Golden Horizon, which has not been publicly disclosed before, but Israeli media has speculated that it may be related to Blue Sparrow missiles.
These systems are believed to have a range of approximately 1,200 miles.
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The US government is currently investigating the source of the leak. The Federal Bureau of Investigation and US intelligence agencies have launched an inquiry into how such sensitive information ended up in the public domain.
According to a US official, while the documents are bad, but not horrible, the fear remains that more documents could be leaked.
This breach of security is likely to strain relations between the US and Israel especially at a critical juncture when both nations need to cooperate in the face of escalating tensions in the Middle East.
Mick Mulroy, a former CIA officer and Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East highlighted that trust between the two nations could be eroded due to the leak.
Trust is fundamental for military and intelligence cooperation and this breach could have repercussions on the future of joint operations between the US and Israel.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to express frustration over the leak, as Israel was preparing for a military action in response to Iran’s missile barrage.
The leak confirms Israel’s intentions to retaliate against Iran’s missile attack on October 1, 2024, which has escalated regional tensions.
Israel has been publicly clear about its stance, Iran’s aggression will not go unpunished. However, the exposure of its tactical plans complicates its ability to execute the strike effectively.
The documents also contain detailed intelligence about air-to-surface missile drills conducted by the Israeli Air Force, a clear indication of their preparations for a decisive strike on Iranian targets.
While the document states that Israel has no intention of deploying nuclear weapons in this operation, the very mention of nuclear assets in these leaked files could increase regional tensions.
Israel’s nuclear arsenal has long been a subject of speculation and although Israel has maintained a policy of ambiguity regarding its nuclear weapons program, the leak indirectly confirms their existence.
The Pentagon and US intelligence agencies are conducting a thorough investigation to determine the origins of the leak.
There is speculation that it could have been caused by either an intentional leak within the US intelligence community or a sophisticated cyber-attack.
The involvement of Iran in the leak cannot be ruled out. The Middle East Spectator Telegram channel is known for its pro-Iran stance and has, in the past, posted content supportive of Tehran’s Axis of Resistance against Israel and the West.
The intelligence in question was shared exclusively within the Five Eyes intelligence-sharing network, which is composed of the US, UK, Canada, Australia and New Zealand.
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