The asteroid Apophis is set to make a flyby of Earth in 2029. This close encounter is predicted to bring Apophis within 20,000 miles of Earth, a distance even closer than some artificial satellites.
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Asteroid Apophis will make its closest approach on April 13, 2029, at a distance of about 24,000 miles from Earth’s surface, which is closer than many of our satellites.
For comparison, this is about ten times closer than the Moon. Apophis measures about 1,100 feet in diameter large enough to attract scientific interest for this upcoming close flyby.
NASA’s updated projections confirm that Asteroid Apophis poses no threat to Earth. This prediction holds for at least the next century.
Earth’s gravitational force during the flyby is expected to generate seismic events on Apophis. Similar gravitational interactions have caused stress fractures on other celestial bodies such as Uranus’ moon Miranda and even raise questions about the stability of our own Moon.
This will be the closest any large asteroid has come to Earth in recorded history, allowing scientists to observe the effects of planetary gravity on asteroid surfaces in real-time.
Named after Apep, an ancient Egyptian god of chaos, Asteroid Apophis measures about 1,100 feet in length and has a peanut-like shape. This asteroid could cause city-level destruction if it ever collided with Earth.
Initial observations in 2004 suggested a high likelihood of Asteroid Apophis hitting Earth. However, updated calculations in 2021 reassured scientists that it posed only a minimal risk of impact during its upcoming flyby.
On April 13, 2029, Apophis will pass within 20,000 miles of Earth, closer than many geostationary satellites. This proximity will allow scientists to study Apophis more closely than ever before.
Though Asteroid Apophis poses no direct threat to Earth, Earth’s gravitational pull is expected to impact Apophis itself, causing surface alterations and possibly revealing deeper layers.
Ronald-Louis Ballouz, an asteroid scientist at Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory led a study predicting the effects of Earth’s gravitational pull on Apophis.
According to Ballouz, asteroids that pass close to planets often lack weathered surfaces likely due to gravitational disturbances that remove surface material.
Due to limited information on Asteroid Apophis’ physical properties, Ballouz’s team created computer models based on Itokawa, a similar peanut-shaped asteroid that has been studied in greater detail.
By simulating Apophis’ movement toward Earth, researchers tracked large and small scale physical changes. The simulations showed that gravitational forces could disrupt Apophis’ surface through tremors and changes in its rotational speed.
The study forecasts tremors that will begin about an hour before Apophis reaches its closest approach and continue shortly after.
Asteroid Apophis’ gravitational force is around 250,000 times weaker than Earth’s, meaning even minor gravitational effects from Earth could shake the asteroid’s surface. Some rocks may be ejected entirely from Apophis, while others will fall back.
According to research models, Asteroid Apophis may experience seismic tremors and landslides. The team’s computer simulations indicate that tremors will begin around one hour before Apophis reaches its closest approach to Earth.
Given Apophis’s weak gravity approximately 250,000 times weaker than Earth’s seismic events are expected to be pronounced, possibly lifting rocks briefly into space before they fall back to the asteroid’s surface.
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Apophis has an irregular, erratic rotation often likened to a poorly thrown football. This tumbling motion is anticipated to increase or decrease in speed based on its orientation as it nears Earth’s gravitational influence.
Apophis may experience shifts in its rotational speed, causing gradual destabilization of surface slopes that could lead to landslides over time.
This unstable rotation contributes to the refreshing of surface materials, which helps expose untouched layers and offers more information about the asteroid’s internal structure.
These changes offer insight into Apophis’s composition and structure. Scientists are eager to see if the asteroid’s surface contains organic molecules, which might give clues to the building blocks of life.
Studying materials on Apophis could reveal critical data about the early solar system, showing light on the processes and events that led to the formation of planets, moons and smaller celestial bodies.
Apophis’s surface dynamics could also help scientists understand unusual objects such as the interstellar visitor Oumuamua, which behaved oddly and accelerated like a spaceship.
NASA’s OSIRIS-APEX mission, a follow-up to the OSIRIS-REx mission that studied the asteroid Bennu, is set to observe and collect data from Apophis during the 2029 flyby.
For 18 months, OSIRIS-APEX will analyze Apophis’s chemical composition and document any surface changes caused by Earth’s gravitational impact.
This mission aims to validate the seismic and rotational changes predicted by current simulations, helping scientists understand the immediate and effects of planetary encounters on small bodies.
Private companies including Blue Origin, have shown interest in missions to study Asteroid Apophis during its close flyby.
Since Apophis will be passing close by, this presents a cost-effective way to conduct research. Typically, visiting an asteroid requires expensive space missions, but Apophis’s proximity reduces those expenses.
Scientists have likened this close flyby to a doctor making a home visit, where the asteroid itself comes close enough for detailed analysis without the need for a journey.
The Chelyabinsk meteor, which exploded over Russia in 2013, was just 66 feet across about 17 times smaller than Apophis.
Yet, it caused considerable damage, releasing energy equivalent to 500 kilotons of TNT. Objects the size of Apophis strike Earth roughly once every 80,000 years.
These events can cause localized destruction and potentially alter global climates temporarily. With advanced tracking and research, NASA’s 2021 analysis assured that Apophis will not pose a collision threat during its 2029 flyby or for the next century.
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