Vladimir Putin announced that Russia is revising its nuclear doctrine, which governs the conditions under which it would use nuclear weapons. The new proposal broadens the preconditions for deploying nuclear weapons. Russia’s doctrine will now consider an attack from a non-nuclear state supported by a nuclear-armed nation as a joint attack, allowing for nuclear retaliation.
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The revision focuses on non-nuclear states such as Ukraine, that receive military backing from nuclear-armed countries like the United States or the United Kingdom.
Vladimir Putin’s statement is relevant in the context of Ukraine, which has received military aid from the West including weapons and intelligence support. Putin’s warning is clearly aimed at deterring Western military assistance to Ukraine.
Vladimir Putin’s proposed amendments include expanding the list of states and military alliances that Russia considers under its nuclear deterrence. The doctrine will also now include a more detailed list of military threats that could prompt a nuclear response.
This is a long-range, low-observable cruise missile developed by the UK and France with a range of 500 km. It has been integrated into Ukraine’s Soviet-era Su-24 bombers and is capable of striking deep into Russian-held territories.
The UK cleared the use of the Storm Shadow missiles for Ukraine, which could now target locations within Russia. Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s visit to Washington DC, where he met with US President Joe Biden reportedly focused on this very issue.
The US has also provided Ukraine with military aid, backing the UK’s decision to allow Ukraine the use of advanced weaponry, which includes the possible expansion of Ukraine’s military reach.
Russia’s current nuclear doctrine established four years ago dictates that nuclear weapons can be used in the event of a nuclear attack on Russia or if a conventional attack threatens the very existence of the Russian state.
Vladimir Putin addressed that any Western support for Ukrainian attacks on Russia could lead to appropriate decisions by Moscow, potentially signaling a nuclear response even in cases of conventional warfare.
This revision offers Russia broad discretion to determine what constitutes a critical threat to its sovereignty, opening the door to nuclear retaliation under a wider range of scenarios.
The US-Russia New START Treaty was signed in 2011, limits the number of deployed intercontinental ballistic missiles and nuclear warheads held by both countries. It was extended in 2021 and is set to expire in 2026.
Russia has expressed the need for any future nuclear arms treaty to include the nuclear arsenals of other European nations particularly the UK and France. The Kremlin has been pushing for negotiations on this front but has yet to receive a formal response from the United States.
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The New START Treaty is crucial for global security as it limits the number of deployed nuclear warheads. Russia, being the world’s largest nuclear power, holds an estimated 6,372 nuclear warheads out of which 1,572 are currently deployed.
Russia maintains the largest stockpile of nuclear weapons globally with over 6,372 warheads. Of these, 1,572 are deployed on land-based ballistic missiles, submarine-launched missiles and heavy bombers.
Russia has an additional 870 strategic warheads in reserve and 1,870 non-strategic warheads with another 2,060 warheads awaiting dismantlement.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is actively lobbying Western allies particularly the US and UK, for permission to deploy long-range weapons such as Storm Shadow, ATACMS and SCALP missiles.
Ukraine’s objective is to target Russian military bases that are launching missiles into Ukrainian territory. Putin’s warning may be an attempt to deter the West from giving Ukraine the green light to strike Russian targets directly.
Zelensky is currently in the US meeting with President Joe Biden, where discussions about long-range missile use are at the top of the agenda.
Vladimir Putin’s proposal to change Russia’s nuclear doctrine coincides with this diplomatic engagement. Zelensky’s chief of staff, Andriy Yermak criticized Russia’s nuclear threats as nuclear blackmail, accusing Moscow of resorting to intimidation tactics as it faces increasing challenges on the battlefield.
In May, Russia conducted tactical nuclear drills near its border with Ukraine. Additionally, Russia has stationed tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, bringing these weapons closer to the battlefield.
Western nations particularly the US and the UK have yet to respond formally to Vladimir Putin’s nuclear threats. However, the repeated warnings from Moscow suggest that the West must tread carefully in its continued support for Ukraine.
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