I’ve already used this space to make this plea once, but I am again going to implore you to look into the Clippers series price against the Mavericks. After their Game 3 victory, most books have them somewhere close to even money to beat Dallas in that series, but that win was far more encouraging than it looked. My primary reason for believing in the Clippers was shooting variance. Dallas was hitting an unsustainable amount of 3-pointers in the first two games and that was bound to regress. It didn’t in Game 3. Dallas made 20 3-pointers, a total the Mavs matched only six times in the regular season, and they still lost.
The Clippers committed to a defensive strategy in Game 3: They let Luka Doncic get his points, but committed to slowing down everyone else. It worked despite their poor luck. Eventually, the Mavericks are going to stop shooting like the Dream Team. If they couldn’t even beat the Clippers with perfect shooting luck, where are they going to stand without it?
Betting markets are dictated largely by public sentiment. It doesn’t matter which team should win if bettors don’t believe that team is actually going to win. Nobody wants to believe in the Clippers right now. After what happened in the bubble, a 2-0 home deficit to Dallas convinced the world that they were choking yet again when the true culprit was poor shooting variance. This team overcame a 17-point deficit in Game 3 when the entire basketball world was calling them choke artists. If you don’t think they have the mental toughness to complete this comeback, I don’t know what to tell you. I’ve put my literal money where my mouth is on this. I’d recommend you do, too. Now onto Saturday’s slate.
News Source: CBS