Another bond market sell-off is likely in the next three months following the recent rout in financial markets, according to analysts polled by Reuters, although they did not predict a runaway rise in sovereign yields. Expectations for better growth and higher inflation drove the recent spike in longer yields and dollar strength, interrupting a widely expected bull-run in equities.
But the March 18-25 poll of more than 70 fixed-income strategists pointed to only a marginal rise in major sovereign bond yields over the coming year, driven largely by global central banks’ pledges to keep policy loose for years to come.
The US 10-year Treasury yield hit 1.7540 percent on March 18, a level not seen since January 2020 – before the pandemic sent yields and stocks crashing. It was forecast to rise about 15 basis points from that high to 1.90 percent in a year.
News Source: CNBC TV 18
That lines up with the findings of a separate Reuters poll of FX strategists who said the dollar’s strength – which has echoed the rise in Treasury yields – was likely to gradually peter out over the coming year.