The Alternative for Germany (AfD) wins and becomes the first far-right party to win a state election in Germany since 1945. This win occurred in the eastern state of Thuringia, where the AfD secured 32.8% of the vote. The party also performed strongly in Saxony, coming in second with 30.6% of the vote.
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This victory presents a challenge to Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government, just a year before the next federal election. The AfD’s success shows a growing discontent with the current political leadership and concerns about the future of Scholz’s center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) coalition.
Scholz described the election results as bitter and called on all democratic parties to form stable governments that exclude the AfD. He invoked the European principle of the cordon sanitaire to prevent the far-right party from participating in state governing coalitions.
Alice Weidel, co-leader of the AfD celebrated the victory as a requiem for Scholz’s coalition. She criticized Germany’s immigration policies, advocating for the immediate expulsion of all illegal immigrants and highlighted the need to address crime and extremism by tightening border controls.
The Christian Democratic Union (CDU), a mainstream center-right party also performed well in these elections. However the CDU’s hardening stance on immigration shows the rightward shift in German politics, especially in the eastern states.
Another concerning development for Germany’s mainstream parties is the rise of the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), a far-left party that shares some of the AfD’s anti-immigration rhetoric.
Despite being newly founded the BSW came in third in both Thuringia and Saxony.
The AfD was founded in 2013, initially opposing the euro and the German-backed bailout of southern European countries during the eurozone crisis.
Over time, the party has shifted its focus to staunchly oppose immigration particularly after former Chancellor Angela Merkel allowed over 1 million refugees into Germany in 2015.
The AfD’s success in the east is partly attributed to the region’s economic struggles. Eastern Germany, formerly part of the communist German Democratic Republic (GDR) continues to lag behind the west in terms of economic growth and opportunities.
The AfD’s strong performance complicates the process of forming stable governments in both Thuringia and Saxony. In Saxony, the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) won slightly more votes than the AfD, but still lacks a clear majority.
The CDU may have to form a coalition with the newly formed left-wing populist party, the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) and the SPD. However such a coalition would be ideologically diverse and unstable.
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In Thuringia, a minority government composed of the CDU, BSW and SPD appears likely, given the need to exclude the AfD. This situation is expected to provoke strong reactions from the AfD, which holds a blocking minority in the state.
The BSW was founded by former Left party member Sahra Wagenknecht, also performed well in the elections securing nearly 16% of the vote in Thuringia and almost 12% in Saxony.
The party’s platform, which includes higher taxes for top earners, stricter immigration controls and an end to military support for Ukraine.
The BSW’s success at the state level suggests that it may clear the 5% threshold required to enter the Bundestag in the upcoming national elections in 2025. This would complicate efforts by traditional parties like the CDU and SPD to form stable governing coalitions at the national level.
The AfD is also gaining traction among younger voters in the eastern states. The party’s youth wing, Young Alternative (JA) has been designated as a confirmed extremist organization by German authorities, yet it continues to attract new members.
The JA’s appeal lies in its nationalist rhetoric and its promise to restore a sense of security and national pride especially among those who feel alienated by the current political establishment.
Björn Höcke, the AfD’s lead candidate in Thuringia embodies the party’s extremist wing. Earlier this year, Höcke was convicted for violating German laws against using Nazi slogans in public.
Despite this, he has campaigned on a platform of national pride, free from the historical guilt associated with Germany’s past. This normalization of extremist views is a worrying trend, as more Germans appear willing to support figures like Höcke, who openly challenge the country’s democratic values.
The election results highlight the growing political divide between eastern and western Germany. While the AfD dominates in the east, its support remains much weaker in the western states, where established parties like the CDU and SPD continue to hold sway.
The assumption that the political and economic integration of eastern and western Germany would naturally lead to a unified national identity is being challenged by the rise of the AfD.
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