A new study published in The Lancet has projected that AMR could claim the lives of nearly 40 million people by 2050. This study was conducted by the Global Research on Antimicrobial Resistance Project and the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, analyzed data over several decades.
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Researchers predict that over 39 million people will die from drug-resistant infections by 2050, as superbugs make infections harder to treat.
By 2050, drug-resistant infections are expected to play a role in 8.2 million deaths every year. This represents a huge increase from the 4.71 million AMR-related deaths recorded in 2021.
Antimicrobial Resistance is forecasted to cause 1.91 million direct deaths annually by 2050, up from 1.14 million in 2021.
While deaths due to drug resistance are declining among children under five, they are increasing in older age groups. Antimicrobial Resistance fatalities among those over 70 have risen by 80% since 1990 and are expected to climb another 146% by 2050.
Improvements in vaccination and hygiene have led to a sharp decline in AMR-related deaths among children under five, from 488,000 in 1990 to 193,000 in 2022. This number is expected to halve again by 2050.
Older individuals are more susceptible to infections due to a weakened immune system, chronic conditions such as diabetes and heart disease and the necessity for more medical interventions that increase the risk of hospital-acquired infections.
Countries in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa are projected to suffer the worst of Antimicrobial Resistance-related deaths due to higher rates of infections and limited healthcare infrastructure.
AMR deaths are not restricted to lower-income regions. In high-income countries, Antimicrobial Resistance related deaths are expected to rise from 125,000 in 2021 to 192,000 by 2050.
Antimicrobial Resistance occurs when pathogens like bacteria and fungi evolve the ability to resist the medications designed to kill them. This can happen when antimicrobials such as antibiotics are overused or misused in humans, animals and agriculture.
The World Health Organization (WHO) has identified AMR as one of the top global public health threats.
The study revealed that AMR disproportionately affects older adults those aged 70 and above. Deaths from AMR-related infections have increased by over 80% in this age group between 1990 and 2021.
Deaths among children under 5 years old due to AMR have decreased by more than 50%.
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The study analyzed the impact of AMR on 22 pathogens, 84 pathogen-drug combinations and 11 different infections across 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2021.
Among the pathogens examined, MRSA saw the increase in deaths. From 1990 to 2021, deaths attributable to MRSA more than doubled, rising from 57,200 to 130,000.
Infections caused by gram-negative bacteria such as Acinetobacter baumannii, which are resistant to carbapenem have also seen a huge rise. Deaths from these infections increased by 89,200 from 1990 to 2021.
The study found that the regions most affected by AMR-related deaths include South Asia, Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa. Many of these areas suffer from limited access to quality healthcare.
If the world improves access to quality healthcare including better treatment options and availability of necessary medical resources, up to 92 million cumulative deaths could be averted between 2025 and 2050.
If new and more effective antibiotics are developed, approximately 11 million deaths could be avoided over the same period.
South Asia, Latin America, the Caribbean, and sub-Saharan Africa are expected to face the highest mortality rates due to AMR by 2050.
Expanding access to healthcare and antibiotics in low-income regions could help reduce AMR deaths. Many patients in these areas currently die from infections due to a lack of access to effective treatments.
Prevention strategies including improved hygiene, vaccination and infection control measures and are essential in combating the rise of AMR. The study estimates that better infection prevention could prevent 750,000 AMR-related deaths annually.
The United Nations General Assembly is set to hold its second-ever high-level meeting on AMR, following the first one in 2016.
During this meeting, world leaders are expected to reaffirm their commitment to tackling AMR and endorse a political declaration aimed at reducing AMR deaths by 10% by 2030.
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